You know how all the public officials like to say they want to be guided by the data?
“The data should guide our actions.”
“Listen to what the numbers are telling us.”
Okay. Fair enough.
Well, this morning I got up at 3:15, even earlier than usual 🙂 I just worked out and now I have an hour before I go wake Hallie up. So I got on google, grabbed my calculator and figured I’d actually LOOK at the data.
I looked at Erie, Crawford, and Warren County. That is an area around us of over 3,500 square miles. That’s a pretty big region. Bigger than the states of Delaware and Rhode Island combined.
The population of these 3 counties is about 400,000 people (270k in Erie, 85k in Crawford and 40k in Warren)
Erie County has 62 confirmed cases and 0 deaths.
Crawford County has 17 confirmed cases and 0 deaths.
Warren County has 2 cases and 1 death. (An 82 year old woman; RIP)
This is what the actual DATA tells us about the pandemic’s toll in our region.
So, I wondered how that looked statistically. And, because this is not yet over (though, thankfully, it looks like we may be on the downside of it) I DOUBLED the numbers . IF it more than doubles, this analysis will be wrong.
So, even if we end up at TWICE the number of cases and deaths, your chances of getting COVID-19 in this tri-county area of NW PA is .0004. This means that 4 out of every 10,000 people (about the population of Edinboro and Northeast combined) will get the disease. And for many, getting the disease feels like a cold or flu, and MANY feel nothing at all—they don’t even know if they have/had the disease.
Your chances of dying from the disease have been. .0000025. If we double that it goes to .000005, meaning that 1 out of every 200,000 people would have died from this disease.
That is the actual data.
As with any data, you can analyze it however you like and put your own take to what it means and how we should deal with it. But, as they say, the numbers ARE the numbers.
I find that very interesting, especially in comparison to the harder hit areas.
Just an FYI.
-Jim Berlin, Founder and CEO