Of all the folks who have been talking about Covid for the past 9 months (9 months—Wow! Who woulda thunk it?) my favorite has been Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner. I also like Doctors Birks and Fauci, but maybe because Gottlieb is no longer in Government, he has been able to be more measured, and I think more sober and accurate than anyone.

On ‘Face the Nation’ this morning, he said this: (my words, not his)

That the next 2-3 months will be the worst period of this pandemic.

That even though we now know more about the virus and are able to treat it better, the fact that it is surging all across the nation will make it hard/impossible for the Federal Govt to “backstop” the hard-hit areas (because there are now too many hard-hit areas vs in the spring when it was mostly in the Northeast and major cities).

He said, “Don’t get hit now. Be smart. Be careful. Don’t let Covid fatigue get you down. You’ve made it this far. Don’t let your guard down. Muscle through these next few months”.

Because help is on the way and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

The 2 vaccines (plus several more from other big firms) are testing out VERY well/way better than expected, with 95% (vs. normal 50%) effectiveness. First indications seem like these will work and will work well.

They will be out in a month or so, and by the beginning of 2021, will have been given to front-line health care providers and the most at-risk elderly who are in health care institutions.

Later in 1Q 2021, the other at-home elderly people will also get their shots.

They will then work down the cohorts and by next fall, likely 30% of Americans will have either had the disease while another large portion of the population will have been given the vaccine, so that going into next year’s “flu” season, the risk should be almost eliminated and the rest of the young/healthy population can get inoculated then.

That’s truly good news and, while requiring more patience, it seems like the end of this mess will be here sooner than later (finally!) Can’t wait.

Stay safe and stay smart everyone!

Here’s a pic of me visiting Big Ern out in LA last week 🙂

-JB